英鎊回到軌道

14/01/14 @ 08:38 GMT by Simon Smith， Chief Economist

http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20140114/yingbang-huidao-guidao

Data/Event Risks

數據／事件風險

USD:Retail sales data for December are always a bit of a gamble in terms of getting the seasonal adjustments right. Market looks for headline sales to rise 0.1%， after 0.7% increase in November. In the wake of the weaker employment report， the dollar could be vulnerable to a negative reading. Note that hawkish Fed speakers are on the agenda this evening （Plosser and Fisher）， but should not impact greatly given views widely known.

GBP:Both headline and core inflation readings are seen steady at 2.1% and 1.8% respectively when released this morning. Sterling was under pressure yesterday and could be vulnerable to weaker reading.

美元：從獲得季節性調整來看，十二月的零售數據總是有一些賭博的味道。市場期待整體銷售在十一月出現0.7% 的上升后能上升0.1%。由於就業報告疲軟，如果數據出現負值美元可能會變得有些脆弱。要注意今天晚上美聯儲強硬派發言人（Plosser 和Fisher），不過他們應該不會影響到大家都知道的看法。

英鎊：今天上午，整體和核心通脹數據都分別穩定在2.1% 和1.8%。昨天英鎊處於壓力之下，對於負值讀數可能會比較脆弱。

Idea of the Day

今日看法

Sterling was feeling a little heavy yesterday， with cable pulling back from the 1.65 level early on. The key is how long the stronger recovery story still has to run. Sterling was one of the strongest performers on the majors in the second half of last year， defying expectations that a commitment from the BoE to keep rates low would weaken the currency. Rate expectations have slowly been shifting， although tightening still remains some way off. Today’s inflation numbers could potentially see headline inflation back at the 2% target for the first time in over four years， which would no doubt be another feather in the cap of the newish Bank of England governor.

昨天英鎊感到有些沉重，不久前英鎊美元從1.65 拉回。關鍵問題是這種強勢恢復還能持續多長時間。英鎊是去年下半年主要貨幣中表現最強勢者之一，無視了英格蘭銀行對於低利率可能會讓貨幣疲軟的言論。對於利率的期待已經慢慢在變化，雖然收緊政策仍然還沒來到。今天的通脹數據可能會讓整體通脹四年來第一次回到2% 這個目標，這毫無疑問是英格蘭銀行新總裁的一個新成就。

Latest FX News

最新外匯新聞

EUR:We noted last week that the euro was displaying some underlying resilience， recovering quickly from the lows seen in the wake of the ECB press conference. Some further gains being seen in early part of the European session， towards the 1.37 level on EURUSD.

GBP: A weaker tone emerging during Monday， with cable pulling back from the 1.65 level. Initial support seen is seen at 1.6381. EURGBP has also seen a strong turnaround， back above the 0.8330 level overnight.

Gold:Trading at a four and a half week high above the 1，250 level. Gold is all about sentiment and so far this year， it has been cautiously optimistic.

歐元：上周我們注意到歐元顯示出某種飯廳，在歐洲央行新聞發布會之后迅速從低點恢復。歐洲盤早些時候又出現一些上漲，歐元美元朝著1.37 前進。

英鎊：周一出現一種疲軟趨勢，英鎊美元從1.65 處來回。起始支撐點在於1.6381。歐元英鎊也出現大的轉變，前一天回到了0.8330 之上。

黃金：達到四周半以來的高點，高於1250 美元。今年到目前為止黃金的一切就是關於情緒，對於黃金大家都是審慎的樂觀。

FX Alerts

JPY ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT

日本調整經常賬

13/01/14 @ 23:59 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140114/riben-tiaozheng-jingchangzhang

Japanese November Adjusted Current Account at -0.05T vs -0.02 forecast.

日本十一月調整經常賬戶為-0.05 萬億，而預期是-0.02 萬億。

FX Alerts

JPY CURRENT ACCOUNT N.S.A.

日本經常賬（無季節性調整）

14/01/14 @ 00:00 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140114/riben-jingchangzhang-nsa

Japan November Current Account n.s.a. at ??-592.8B

日本十一月經常賬未季節性調整，為-59.28 億日元

FX Alerts

STERLING LOWER ON CPI DATA

CPI 導致英鎊走低

14/01/14 @ 09:36 GMT by Simon Smith， Chief Economist

http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140114/cpi-daozhi-yingbang-zoudi

UK inflation falls to 2.0% （expected 2.1%）. CPI at target for first time in over 4 years. Cable reversing early gains， down 35 pips to 1.6410. EURGBP 0.8335.

英國通脹下降到2.0%（預期是2.1%）。CPI 四年多來第一次達到目標。英鎊美元逆轉了早先的說活，下降了35 點到了1.6410。歐元英鎊位於0.8335。