中國的人民幣 世界人民的貨幣

中國的人民幣 世界人民的貨幣

——賁聖林教授在紐約《人民幣國際化報告2015》發布會上的致辭

各位中國人民大學校友們，來自工商業和公共機構的朋友們，媒體界和學術界同仁，來自紐約和美國其他地區、來自中國和全世界的朋友們，女士們、先生們，上午好！

首先，請允許我代表中國人民大學國際貨幣研究所(以下簡稱“IMI”)和中國人民大學校長陳雨露先生，向來到紐約出席人民幣國際化論壇的各位朋友表示熱烈的歡迎。特別要歡迎從中國和世界其他地區遠道而來的朋友。

中國人民大學國際貨幣研究所執行所長賁聖林主持論壇。

自從2009年國務院批準開展跨境貿易人民幣結算試點以來，人民幣國際化在國內和國際都成為了熱點課題。從2012年起，IMI每年都發布《人民幣國際化報告》，追蹤人民幣國際化發展趨勢、重大進步以及在國際社會獲得更多承認過程中要面對的障礙。同時我們也在中國，主要在北京舉辦了很多關於人民幣國際化的論壇。不過，我們從人民幣國際化一開始便意識到，人民幣國際化不僅僅是中國的事情。正因為這樣，它對於整個全球社會而言，也是一個機遇。所以人民幣國際化需要在中國和全球范圍內得到普遍共識，接受和承認，即人民幣要成為現存國際貨幣體系的補充。正是基於此，我們在北京和中國其他地區比如香港也舉辦了很多人民幣國際化的主題論壇，同時我們也走出國門，在世界其他國家舉辦“人民幣路演”。去年，IMI與交通銀行、貨幣金融機構官方論壇(OMFIF)、歌德大學合作，在倫敦和法蘭克福進行了路演。IMI的代表也被邀請在拉美和非洲等地的論壇上發表演講。上個月，IMI與中國的央行合作，在哈薩克斯坦阿拉木圖舉行了發布會。今天，IMI來到紐約這個全球金融之都和美元中心，討論人民幣國際化這一重要話題。我們將會有何收獲？這個論壇不是為了在人民幣國際化話題上教導他人。那樣的話意味著我們了解的更多！而即使我們僅僅是多了解一些，也沒有資格作老師。因此，這次論壇沒有收取任何費用。我們也不是為人民幣國際化或者中國的地位辯護，就像在國會作證或者像我在美國21年前求學的時候為了通過博士學位畢業論文那樣。那么我們的目的是什么？我們在此進行已知和未知的有關人民幣國際化話題的討論；其次是聆聽你們關於人民幣國際化的觀點、建議和擔憂；最後會盡我們所能回答關心的問題。

為什么中國要實施所謂的“人民幣國際化”戰略？遇到這個主題的時候，很多人開始關注背后的真實動機。許多人有不同的觀點和解釋。絕大多數人會開始把實力不斷增長的中國和實力可能下降的美國做比較。似乎以為人民幣國際化只是中美雙邊的問題，似乎認為是兩國貨幣之間的零和博弈，似乎認為人民國際化必然有利中國而不可避免的對美元產生不利影響。

我並不知道該如何回答和解釋上述提到的觀點。但是我想和大家分享下我們經常能夠聽到的事實：

中國在許多行業領先於世界，比如鋼鐵、水泥、銅、汽車、電視機、微波爐、空調、冰箱、洗衣機、鞋……等等，這個名單還可以繼續。很肯定的說，在任何生產“有形”或“可觸”產品的行業，中國幾乎都占據無人能及的領導地位。

中國也是全球最大的貿易國。如今的中國是全球43個國家的第一大出口市場；而1994年時，僅有2個國家以中國為最大出口國。作為對比，美國現在是32個國家的第一大出口市場，而在1994年這個數字是44個。

中國還同時擁有最大的外匯儲備，且正在探索更好的使用途徑。就國內生產總值(GDP)而言，有些報告(基於購買力平價理論)認為中國已成為世界第一大經濟體，占據全球GDP的17%，領先於占比16%的美國。然而以通行的市場匯率來計算，中國其實僅占全球經濟規模的14%，仍大幅於美國的23%。

不足為奇的是，在美國，有一些人對中國的崛起和人民幣國際化有所擔憂，甚至視為嚴重威脅。但是請允許我來分享這個故事的另外一面。根據《經濟學人》近期的一項調查，美國在眾多領域擁有的領先地位描繪了完全不同的一幅畫面。

·在全球前20所大學中，美國擁有15所。

·好萊塢和矽谷統治了全球的票房和風投。

·在今天我們所處的以云、電子商務、社交媒體和共用經濟為標志的所謂“新紀元”中，美國公司掌握全球61%的社交媒體用戶資源，處理著全球91%的搜尋內容，發明了99%智慧手機用戶的操作系統。

·美國在全球金融和國際貨幣體系中領導地位不斷加強。比如華爾街投行的全球市場份額升至今天的50%。美國的基金公司管理著全球55%的資產，而10年前這一數字為44%。

基於IMI編制的貨幣國際化指數(CII)的計算，美元仍然保持其世界主要貨幣的地位。與此相比，盡管人民幣在過去幾年取得了令人鼓舞的進步，但其在貿易、金融和儲備貨幣等使用方面的綜合份額仍然不到3%。

為什么會這樣？為什么中國在所謂傳統實體經濟占據領先，但在金融和新經濟方面卻相當落后？難道是因為不公平的現行國際體制？是否是西方的陰謀？與此同時，西方人士也在問：人民幣國際化是否是中國意欲推翻美元地位的陰謀？是否是中國在為主宰全球金融體系所做出的努力，令人民幣像美元所擁有的地位那樣？人民幣國際化是否一定意味著美元作為國際貨幣的地位下降？是否對美國不利？如何保證人民幣的崛起是對現有失衡的全球體系的一種補充？人民幣國際化應該走多遠？

對以上這些問題，我們並不知道所有的答案，但希望今天的論壇能夠幫助我們得到一些答案，消除部分誤解，減少一些疑慮。

今天的論壇安排的很好，邀請到了很多著名的意見領袖、政策顧問和制定者以及有關業者。

在正式宣布論壇開始之前，請允許我簡要介紹下中國人民大學以及國際貨幣研究所。中國人民大學字面含義為中國人民的大學，就像中國人民銀行是中國的央行，人民幣是人民的貨幣一樣。人民大學是中國共產黨建立的第一所大學，誕生於1937年抗日戰爭的烽火中。IMI成立於2009年，我們的首場圓桌會議可以追溯到2007年。是專注於全球金融體系和人民幣國際化的領先的中國學術研究機構。

中國人民大學和IMI的創立都是基於某種理想主義精神，同樣可以說人民幣國際化也是如此。但是我們知道，人民幣國際化是非常復雜的課題。人民幣國際化不僅僅是中國單邊的愿望，也不僅是中美雙邊問題，因為有利益相關國家，超越了中國和美國的范圍。人民幣國際化也不僅僅是貨幣、金融或者經濟問題，還牽涉到技術、政治、外交以及法律、全球治理等諸多因素。所以人民幣國際化是個復雜的過程，需要經歷漫漫長途。但是，正如中國有句諺語：“千里之行，始於足下”，我們有理由相信，過去我們所做的努力的和今天正在做的(人民幣國際化論壇)超越了千里之行的第一步。不到10年前，中國境外很少有人聽說過人民幣，或者知道人民幣意指人民的貨幣。而在今天，許多人不僅知道人民幣並且開始使用人民幣進行貨幣兌換、貿易結算和金融交易。也許有一天，人民幣不僅僅是中國人民的人民幣，還會成為世界人民的貨幣。

謝謝！預祝大家度過一個愉快的早晨。

附：英文原文

RMB – The People’s Currency of The World

Dear fellow alumni of Renmin University of China, friends fromindustry, public institutions， media andacademia, friends from New York, the rest of US, China and the rest of theworld, Ladies and gentlemen, good morning!

First of all, on behalf of International Monetary Institute (“IMI”)and on behalf of President CHEN of Renmin University of China, I would like toextend to all of you our warmest welcome to the Forum on RMBInternationalization here in New York. To all of you who travelled from Chinaor other parts of the world, a special welcome to New York!

RMB Internationalization has been a hot topic both in China andinternationally since 2009, the year when China started allowing thecross-border usage of RMB in trade and finance. Since 2012, we at InternationalMonetary Institute have been publishing annual reports on RMBInternationalization, capturing the big trends, the progresses RMB has made andthe hindrances it faces in its broader adoption by the international community.We also held various forums in China, notably in Beijing on this subject. Butwe know from the beginning that RMB Internationalization is NOT just a Chineseinitiative, it is an opportunity for the global community and thereforerequires the joint undertaking of both China and the rest of the world to havethe common understanding, acceptance and adoption of RMB as an alternativecomplementing the existing global financial and monetary system.? In this connection, we have held variousforums in Beijing and other parts of China, including Hong Kong on this importantsubject. We also started going abroad, holding what we sometimes called “RMBRoadshows”, in other countries. Last year, in partnership with Bank ofCommunication and OMFIF in London and Gothe University in Frankfurt, we went toLondon and Frankfurt for similar events there, and our representatives alsowere invited to speak on several forums in Latin American and Africa. Lastmonth we collaborated with the Chinese central bank and held an event inAlmaty, Kazakstan. Today we are gathering here in New York, the capital ofglobal finance and US Dollar, to discuss about this same important subject!What are we here to achieve? The Forum is NOT meant to teach anybody about thesubject as teaching would imply that we know a lot more than you do about the subject!Granted that we know a bit more but not that more so we are not qualified asthe teacher here, that is why we are not charging any tuition or fee for thisevent. We are NOT here to defend RMB Internationalization or China’s positioneither, like testifying in front of the congress or defending a thesis for PhDdegree, as I did 21 years ago in this country. So what are we here for? We arehere to share what we know and what we do not know; secondly we are here tolisten and hear what you all have to say about the subject, suggestions andconcerns; and lastly we are here to address some of your questions andconcerns, if we can.

Why do China undertake the so-called RMB Internationalizationinitiative? People start focusing on the real motives behind it. Many peoplewill give you various and different answers. When they confront this subject,most, if not all of them, will also compare China’s rising power with thepossibly declining fortune of the United States, as if RMB Internationalizationwere a bilateral matter between US and China, as if it were a zero-sum gamebetween the two currencies, as if the internationalization of RMB would benecessarily good for China and inevitably be bad for US＄.

I do not know how to answer or explain the above, but let me sharewith you the following that we often hear:

China is a dominant producer in many industries. Steel, cement,copper, automotive vehicles, TV sets, microwave oven, air-conditioners,refrigerators, washing machines, shoes… the list goes on, it is safe to saythat in any industry that produces tangible and touchable goods, we are almostalways the unrivalled leader.

We are also the largest trade nation. Today China is the biggestexport market for 43 countries, in 1994, only two countries exported more toChina than any other market.? Incomparison, today America is the biggest export market for 32 countries, whilethe number was 44 in 1994.

We also have the largest foreign exchange reserve that we are stillactively looking for good ways to deploy. In terms of GDP, some reports alreadysuggest that China is the world No 1 already, representing 17% of the worldwith America’s share standing at 16%, though based on the prevailing exchangerate, China only represents 14% of the world’s total, while US stands at 23%.

Not surprisingly there have been some anxiety and even fear here inthe US about China’s rise and RMB internationalization, which are perceived asserious threats. But allow me share other side of the story! Based on a recentEconomist survey, America’s leadership in a number of fields paints a totallydifferent picture.

US has 15 of the world’s20 leading universities;

Hollywood and SiliconValley dominate the world’s box offices and venture capital financing

In the so-called “new era”based on the cloud, e-commerce, social media and the sharing economy, Americanfirms now host 61% of the world’s social-media users, undertake 91% of itssearches and invented the operating systems of 99% of its smartphone users.

America has increased itsleadership in global finance and the world monetary system. The global marketshare of Wall Street investment banks has risen to 50%. American fund managersrun 55% of the world’s assets under management, up from 44% a decade ago.

At IMI, we have compiled an internationalization index: CurrencyInternationalization Index (CII)! Based on our calculation USD remains thedominant currency while Chinese RMB, despite some encouraging progress over thepast few years, represent a less than 3% market share, measured in itscomposite usage in trade, finance and reserve currencies.

Why is it so? Why is there such a big disconnect between China’sleadership of the so-called traditional real economy and dwarf in finance andnew economy? Is it because of the unfair incumbent system? Is there aconspiracy by the West? In the meantime, people in the West also wonder: is RMBinternationalization China’s conspiracy to topple the US＄, an effort todominate the global financial system just like the USD has done? Would RMB Internationalizationnecessarily mean the decline of USD as a global currency? Will it bad for theUS? How can we ensure that the rise of the RMB will complement the unbalancedglobal system we have? How far should RMB Internationalization go?

We do not have the answers to all these questions, but hopefullytoday’s conference will help us have some answers, clarify some of themisunderstandings and mitigate some concerns.

We have a great program today featuring some of the prominentopinion leaders, policy advisors and industry practitioners in this field.

Before we commence the official program, let me say a few wordsabout Renmin University of China and IMI. Renmin University of China, meaningliterally, People’s University of China, is the university equivalent ofPeople’s Bank of China – the central bank, while RMB literally means “people’scurrency”.? Renmin University is thefirst university founded by the Chinese communist party in 1937, when all-outSino-Japanese War broke out.? IMI,officially founded in 2009, traced its origin to 2007, when we started thefirst roundtable event. It has since established itself as a leading Chineseresearch institution in the area of global financial system and RMBinternationalization.

Renmin University and IMI were founded with certain idealism. Thesame can be said about RMB internationalization. But we know RMBInternationalization is complex. It is not a domestic China initiative orSino-US bilateral matter, the stakeholder countries go beyond just China or US.? It is not just a monetary or financial oreconomic matter, it involves technology, politics, diplomacy as well as legaland global governance issues.? ThereforeRMB Internationalization will be a complex process ad long journey as well. Butas the old Chinese saying: “a journey of one thousand miles starts with thefirst footstep”, we are confident that what we have done and are doing todaywill represent more than the first footstep. Less than ten years ago, very fewpeople outside China knew of RMB – the people’s currency, today a lot of peopleknow that and have started using them for exchanges, trade and finance. Maybeone day RMB will become the people’s currency, not just in China, but globally.

Thank you! I wish you all a wonderful morning.