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金融界網站主持人蔣超專訪蒙代爾先生
【本期導讀】美聯儲退出QE的步伐是否正在加快？這將會對全球和中國金融市場產生哪些影響？美元未來是否將繼續處於領導地位？美元-歐元-人民幣聯盟的世界貨幣體系構建還要多久？人民幣國際化改革措施收效如何？帶著這些疑問，本期《金融街(行情,問診)會客廳》專訪“諾貝爾經濟學獎”獲得者、美國哥倫比亞大學教授羅伯特·蒙代爾先生。
【嘉賓簡介】羅伯特·蒙代爾（RobertA.Mundell）教授，1999年諾貝爾經濟學獎獲得者。現為美國哥倫比亞大學（ColumbiaUniversity）教授、 “最優貨幣區理論”的奠基人，被譽為“歐元之父”。蒙代爾對經濟學的偉大貢獻在於運用新制度經濟學的理論方法，動態分析貨幣制度，成功的把新制度經濟學理論的精髓推廣到貨幣理論中，使得傳統的貨幣理論獲得了新的生命力，發展了凱恩斯的貨幣理論，創造性的設計歐元制度。
以下為專訪文字實錄：
分段一
蒙代爾：中國虛擬銀行系統問題被夸大到了極壞的程度
JRJ：Mr. Mundell，And now china’s m2 has been over 100 trillion by recently but still short of money. And there is a saying that the reason for this is that because of the federal reserve to tighten quantity. Do you agree with this opinion？
金融界：蒙代爾先生，現在中國的M2（廣義貨幣量）已經超過100萬億元，但最近仍然缺錢。有一種說法認為出現這種狀況的原因是美聯儲在逐步收緊流動性。你同意這種看法嗎？
Mundell：I think there has been some talking mechanicals of this country because I feel this virtual banking system sounds big increasing rate .Almost this debt issue has been exaggerated into the worst climate. I know the food trading system of this thing might meet around a terrible lapse. But what I believed in the case is that，I hope so，something special about china’s the top government is not that large . But the debt is concentrating at the banking system，which is larger than normal in some ways.That’s because there’s not many euro they are holding on the side of the country. The US is far greater of the asset debt to bankruptcy and china is not too specific in the banking，total banking.
蒙代爾：我想還是跟國家所采用的應對措施有關，因為我聽到的關於中國影子銀行系統的說法越來越多，比如稱債務問題幾乎被夸大到了極壞的程度、交易系統的整個鏈條可能都會出現可怕失誤等，對於這個事件，我相信並希望它像中國政府所認為的那樣不是很嚴重。但集中在中國銀行(行情,問診)系統的債務問題確實比一般情況嚴重，這是因為從國家層面來說，持有的歐元數不多，而美元資產債務遠超他國。相比之下，中國銀行業債務情況還沒有太清具體的數據。 [NT:PAGE=$]
分段二
蒙代爾：美聯儲QE退出為時尚早 可能會導致不好的后果
JRJ：According your observation， the US is accelerating the pays of QE debt. And what the do impact for real on the global economy and China’s financial debt？
金融界：根據您的觀察，美國退出QE的步伐是否正在加快？將會對全球經濟和中國金融市場產生哪些影響？
Mundell：what i heard latest is that both china and US reserve continue QE3， in concern of hot capital money about 85 million dollars increasing to 1 trillion a year. And the question is that when they are slowing it down at times ，not increasing at the same moment . They should slow it down in September， the meeting September. But i hope they don’t ，because i think it’s premature and it may cause bad things when they slow it down the rating ，exclusive QE3，not only the same thing in us and Europe，but also in some other emerging marketing countries.
蒙代爾：我聽到的最新訊息是，中國和美國仍然執行著第三次量化寬鬆政策，熱錢將從約85萬億美元增加至1萬億美元。而問題是，他們總是經常放慢腳步而不是加快。美聯儲應該會在9月議息會議時宣布放緩量化寬鬆步伐。但我希望他們不這樣做，我認為QE退出為時尚早，並且可能會導致不好的后果。因為當他們放緩速度時，影響的不僅是美國和歐洲，也會影響到其他一些新興市場經濟國家。
分段三
JRJ：We can see the whole world do we act is not easy we remember the mission to reduce QE many times in the future. Does it means that US dollars will still be in leadership in the future？
金融界：我們可以看到，整個世界正在執行量化寬鬆政策，而伯南克多次提出縮減QE，這是否意味著，美元未來將仍然處於貨幣領導地位？
Mundell：Well，the dollar is the major currency ，leading in the races since about WW1. and the second largest currency is of course euro.But the euro really quite limited in tumors dealing with the first heated debt crisis. And the second thing is of the debt about the population expansion grows. The euro go through a dynamic expanding economy，so awkwardly，more likely the debt more continued . It has been long time before china’s currency is in the position more avail in the global crisis with the competition with euro.but of course， in 20-30 years it can really happen in the definite possibility of 99. We should prepare for that to have a tri-lateral system dollar-euro-RMB in coming.Because it is very strong. But there’s still needing enough time to prepare that coming for years.
蒙代爾：確實，美元仍是主要貨幣，它於第一次世界大戰中就確立領先地位。第二大貨幣當然是歐元。但是歐元也面臨諸多限制，首先是它面臨嚴重債務危機。第二是有關人口膨脹造成的債務增長。歐元區經歷一個較大的經濟增長，尷尬的是，歐洲債務可能持續。人民幣在全球經濟危機中的表現遠超歐元，在未來20-30年，人民幣繼續走強的可能性高達99%。我們應該為美元-歐元-人民幣組成的三邊貨幣體系做好準備，因為這個體系是很強大的，但這還需要足夠的時間去建立。 [NT:PAGE=$]
分段四
蒙代爾：人民幣成為三大貨幣之一對世界經濟非常有益
JRJ：And I know you said RMB，dollar，euro ，the 3 will be the most stable currency and now what’s the resistance of this for us ？
Mundell：Well，the US dollar and euro ， because china has safe-keeping RMB stable as real since 1997，could fall. It allows our appreciate some utters in 2005 and 2008，it’s not a a great deal。that basing US dollar and RMB is the most stable exchanger in the world. And that make very anchor over the whole at present time. Our tri-lateral system could be better if proves it by stabilizing the euro and also to the US dollar and RMB，maybe the 3 biggest currency in our time together. And it would be very happy for the world economy，and that would be big vending time .
蒙代爾：因為中國自1997年以來都保持了人民幣幣值的穩定，所以美元和歐元價值可能有所下降。針對美元，人民幣在2008年止住了升值的趨勢。美元和人民幣之間的匯率穩定目前來說非常重要。如果能統一穩定目前的三大貨幣：美元、歐元及人民幣，三邊貨幣體系可以變得更好，或許我們這個時代存在三種大的貨幣將對世界經濟非常有益，經濟將自主安全運行。
分段五
蒙代爾：人民幣國際化深入推進有利於中國經濟結構調整
JRJ：How do you evaluate china self-going international innovation of RMB？
金融界：您怎么評價中國實行的人民幣國際化改革？
Mundell：For sector internalization， it could make it convertible that would be too mass internalization in coming ways and you need buy themselves to exchange controls because you can make currency convertible not for central banks. they use swap agreements with china， and they can move into right directions .As for the boarders sakes， the countries around china would do something as RMB already use high big deposit，the banking deposit. It would be important ，certainly in HK，etc. Ultimately the next step going for RMB is made more convertible. Like shanghai and Zurich，the global financial centers in big wave， that will be far more bombing job which has a big impact on Asia and other sectors. Until i happened to get to know the bank personnel，i don’t think the convertible for RMB is going to happen very immediately which is recognised to accept to occur. But at every year ，every time ，you can be keeping increasing no matter what the assets people had are convertible in foreign currencies. Since now china has ample resources and reserves， almost about 7 times of one of any other countries as their reserves，like current US dollar. So i think that they gradually move into that direction and could be the whole Chinese financial market for change and the new increased majority of the whole structure of Chinese finance which really held back by the capital self exchange controls.
蒙代爾：從區域來說，它必須是自由可兌換，更加大眾化將是它未來的運行方式，你有需要時可以自己購買，可以不通過中央銀行而自由兌換外匯。中國通過與一些國家的貨幣互換協議尋找到更便利的渠道。對一些中國周邊國家來說，因為邊界相鄰，人民幣已經在他們的銀行存款中占比很大，這是非常重要的信號。當然，在香港等地，人民幣下一步將大有所為。在經濟大潮中，像全球金融中心上海和蘇黎世這樣的地方，這種舉措會在亞洲和其他地區產生很大的影響。包括我認識的一些銀行家，也不認為人民幣可兌換會立即發生，這是公認的。但在每一年，每一個時間，不管是什么人，你都可以在資產中增持外幣。現在中國有充足外匯資產儲備，如其美元儲備幾乎相當於一些國家的7倍。所以，我認為從這個方向（人民幣國際化）逐步深入，可能促使整個中國金融市場的改革和經濟結構的調整，真正突破資本流通管制。
JRJ：Ok. Thank you very much. Mr. mundell.
金融界：好的。非常謝謝您，蒙代爾先生。
——訪談結束——
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