FxPro：逆轉

15/01/14 @ 09:04 GMT by Simon Smith， Chief Economist

http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20140115/nizhuan

Data/Event Risks

數據／事件風險

USD:The data is second tier today， with PPI released at 13:30 together with the Empire manufacturing survey. Note that Chicago Fed’s Evans speaker later. Firmer data should put a floor under the better dollar tone.

美元：今天的數據屬於第二梯隊，13 點30 分有PPI 數據，以及紐約制造業調查數據。要注意稍后芝加哥的美聯儲發言人Evans。數據更堅挺的話應該會支撐目前較好的美元局面。

Idea of the Day

今日看法

The first half of January saw FX markets move against the conventional wisdom for the year as whole. The dollar was not universally stronger because of the Fed tapering story. Furthermore， the currencies widely seen as weaken further this year （the yen and Aussie） were actually firmer against the dollar in the first two weeks. We’ve seen a reversal of that overnight， with the Aussie weakening later in the European session and the euro during Asian trade. In part this has been down to hawkish Fed speaker last night reminding markets of the further tapering to come. All in all though， the price action reminds us that it is not going to be a one way street higher for the dollar this year.

一月份上半個月外匯市場的走勢與去年一整年的傳統看法相悖。由於美聯儲的緊縮，美元沒有一直走強。此外，今年被認為普遍疲軟的貨幣（日元和澳元）在頭兩個星期針對美元實際上更加堅挺。前一天我們發現這個趨勢逆轉了，歐洲盤澳元在疲軟而亞洲盤的歐元也是。這部分是因為昨天晚上美聯儲的強硬派發言人提醒說進一步緊縮的市場將會來到。雖然如此，價格方面的變動也提醒我們，今年美元的走勢將不會是一路向上的。

Latest FX News

最新外匯新聞

EUR: Some selling noted early during Asian trade， taking EURUSD towards the 1.3630 level， where it settled for the rest of the session. A reminder that money market rates remain elevated， still higher than when rates were cut back in November. This continues to act as a support for the single currency.

GBP:There was no lasting impact from the weaker than expected inflation data yesterday， with the headline number hitting the 2% target for the first time in over 4 years. Cable was initially lower， but recovered the losses by midday.

AUD: Weaker overnight with push to the 0.8900 level. Some nervousness ahead of jobs data due tomorrow， where unemployment rate seen steady at 5.8% with some risks of move higher.

歐元：亞洲盤早些時候出現一些賣出跡象，將歐元美元帶到了1.3630，然后一直到盤終。這意味著市場利率仍然在上升，比十一月時候的利率還是要高。這種情況繼續會給歐元提供支撐。

英鎊：昨天比預期要疲軟的通脹數據沒有再繼續產生影響，其整體讀數四年多以來終於達到2% 的目標。英鎊美元一開始走低，不過到中午的時候又收復了以前的損失。

澳元：前一天疲軟到了0.8900 這個水平。由於明天會發布就業數據，由此而出現一些緊張情緒，而失業率穩定在5.8%，並且又走高的風險。