蒙代爾：人民幣在全球經濟危機中的表現遠超歐元

　?????????? 　

“諾貝爾經濟學獎”獲得者、美國哥倫比亞大學教授羅伯特·蒙代爾先生

美元未來是否將繼續處於領導地位？美元-歐元-人民幣聯盟的世界貨幣體系構建還要多久？人民幣國際化改革措施收效如何？帶著這些疑問，本期《金融街（行情，問診）會客廳》專訪“諾貝爾經濟學獎”獲得者、美國哥倫比亞大學教授羅伯特·蒙代爾先生。

　　JRJ：We can see the whole world do we act is not easy we remember the mission to reduce QE many times in the future. Does it means that US dollars will still be in leadership in the future？

　　金融界：我們可以看到，整個世界正在執行量化寬鬆政策，而伯南克多次提出縮減QE，這是否意味著，美元未來將仍然處於貨幣領導地位？

　　Mundell：Well，the dollar is the major currency ，leading in the races since about WW1. and the second largest currency is of course euro.But the euro really quite limited in tumors dealing with the first heated debt crisis. And the second thing is of the debt about the population expansion grows. The euro go through a dynamic expanding economy，so awkwardly，more likely the debt more continued . It has been long time before china’s currency is in the position more avail in the global crisis with the competition with euro.but of course， in 20-30 years it can really happen in the definite possibility of 99. We should prepare for that to have a tri-lateral system dollar-euro-RMB in coming.Because it is very strong. But there’s still needing enough time to prepare that coming for years.

　　蒙代爾：確實，美元仍是主要貨幣，它於第一次世界大戰中就確立領先地位。第二大貨幣當然是歐元。但是歐元也面臨諸多限制，首先是它面臨嚴重債務危機。第二是有關人口膨脹造成的債務增長。歐元區經歷一個較大的經濟增長，尷尬的是，歐洲債務可能持續。人民幣在全球經濟危機中的表現遠超歐元，在未來20-30年，人民幣繼續走強的可能性高達99%。我們應該為美元-歐元-人民幣組成的三邊貨幣體系做好準備，因為這個體系是很強大的，但這還需要足夠的時間去建立。