FxPro：澳新的分化

21/01/14 @ 08:24 GMT by Simon Smith， Chief Economist

http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20140121/aoxin-fenhua

Data/Event Risks

數據／事件風險

AUD: Australia releases its quarterly inflation numbers on Wednesday， which are expected to show inflation rising from 2.2% to 2.4%. This will be a pretty key number， because a softer reading will see expectations of a possible RBA cut increase.

EUR:The ZEW data can have an impact on the single currency if notable away from consensus， with the German series seen rising modestly from 62 to 64.

澳元：周三澳大利亞發布了其季度通脹數據，預期通脹會從2.2% 上升到2.4%。這是一個相當關鍵的數據，因為數據疲軟的話澳聯儲降息的可能性就會上升。

歐元：ZEW 數據會影響到歐元，如果數字完全遠離共識的話。德國一系列的數據小幅上升，從62 到了64。

Idea of the Day

今日看法

One of the most consistent trends in FX last year was AUDNZD， in contrast to both the yen and Aussie versus the US dollar， both of which proved to be erratic and frustrating for longer term players. The stronger than expected inflation data from New Zealand overnight has given the cross a further boost， with prices rising 1.6% in the fourth quarter. The prospect for a move to parity on the cross really depends on the actual divergence we see from the respective central banks. We continue to see scope for at least one more easing from the RBA in Australia， whilst the prospect of a tightening in New Zealand remains fairly strong， the RBNZ retaining a tightening bias within its statements. Such a policy divergence is one of the strongest fundamental signals for FX， so if seen it could remain the cross of choice for longer-term macro players in FX. Note that Australian inflation data will be released overnight.

去年外匯市場表現最一致的就是澳元新元，與之形成對比的就是針對美元的日元和澳元。對於長期玩家來說兩者都是不斷出錯而且讓人感到困擾。前一天新西蘭的通脹數據比預期要好，給了這個交叉盤以更多提振，第四季度其價格也上升了1.6%。此交叉盤移動到比價點的前景取決於澳新兩大央行之間出現的實際分化。我們仍然覺得澳洲聯儲還是有空間再實行一次寬鬆計劃，而新西蘭施行緊縮的前景也顯得相當強勢，因為新西蘭央行在其言論中對緊縮表現出一種偏見。兩者在政策方面出現分化對於外匯市場來說是一種最強勢的基礎性信號，因此如果分化形成，那么這個交叉盤對於外匯市場的長期宏觀玩家來說就是眾多交叉盤之中的首選。要注意澳洲通脹數據將隔天發布。

Latest FX News

最新外匯新聞

EUR:Taking on a weaker tone at the start of European trading， as the dollar takes on a slightly more assured tone. But longer term uptrend on EURUSD undermined by recent down move.

AUD:New low for the year against the US dollar carved out yesterday on the back of the weaker sentiment towards the Aussie， but decisive break lower not yet seen. Focus moving to CPI data released on Wednesday.

JPY:The two day BoJ meeting starts today， with results released tomorrow. Focus is now falling onto the consumption tax increase， which arrives in April and ensuring that growth does not slow substantially thereafter.

歐元：歐洲盤開盤時出現疲軟趨勢，因為美元出現更加有保證的局面。但歐元美元長期的上行趨勢被最近的下行變動給破壞了。

澳元：由於澳元的疲軟情緒，相對美元來說澳元達到今年的新低點，不過關鍵下行點還沒出現。關注焦點在於周三的CPI 數據。

日元：日本銀行兩天的會議於今天開始，會議結果明天發布。目前關注的焦點在於將於四月份來到的消費稅上漲，這將確保此后的經濟增長不會持續下行。

FX Alerts

CREEPING DOLLAR STRENGTH

美元強勢在匍匐前進

21/01/14 @ 12:19 GMT by Simon Smith， Chief Economist

http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140121/meiyuan-qiangshi-paxing

The underlying themes driving FX are of creeping dollar strength， with the Aussie and Canadian dollar proving to the most vulnerable. If you look at the US data， is has been pretty firm of late， with Q4 GDP likely to come in above 3%， compared to expectations of a 2% handle earlier this month. As with the employment data last week， the Aussie is displaying some nerves ahead of the CPI data overnight. The underlying bias on sterling vs. the single currency remains for sterling strength， just on underlying policy dynamics， where employment data tomorrow could well force a revision of forward guidance （but not until next month）， whereas weaker ZEW this morning （for Germany at least） suggests more easing from ECB is possible. But the trend is weak， because BoE unlikely to raise rates this year and the options available to the ECB are pretty limited and falling excess liquidity continues to keep money market rates elevated. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8226 .

驅動外匯市場的原因之一就是匍匐前進的美元的強勢，此外還有最為脆弱的澳元和加元。如果你看一下美國的數據，就會發現這些數據最近相當堅挺，第四季度的GDP 可能會高於3%，相比之下這個月初的預期是2%。隨著上周九月數據的發布，CPI 數據發布前澳元顯示出一種緊張情緒。英鎊歐元方面存在的偏見仍然是英鎊的強勢，其原因就是政策的多變。明天的就業數據可能會導致先期指導被迫進行修正（最早要到下個月）。而今天上午的ZEW 數據（至少對德國來說）預示著歐洲央行有可能會施行更多寬鬆政策。但這種趨勢還是比較弱化，因為英格蘭銀行今年不太可能加息，而且歐洲央行能有的選擇也很有限，此外，過量的流動性正在下降，會讓貨幣市場利率繼續上升。歐元英鎊的支撐點將會在0.8226。